Louisiana’s third-down conversion rate with Darrell Smith and since Darrell Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 4.6 percentage points under with Darrell Smith and 9.2 percentage points over since Darrell Smith’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.7% and 47.7%, a difference of 11.0%. All 4 nonconference games were with Darrell Smith. All 4 first-half games were with Darrell Smith.
Darrell Smith, running back: 156 rushing yards, 30 carries and 2 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games since Darrell Smith’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −13.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Darrell Smith vs since Darrell Smith’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Darrell Smith and it comes up 16 times in 100.
A −11.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Darrell Smith vs since Darrell Smith’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Darrell Smith and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lamar | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ USC | L | 30.0% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 37.5% | 43.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 28.6% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 50.0% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 45.5% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 58.8% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | L | 38.9% | 40.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lamar has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.