Louisiana’s points of margin with Shelton Sampson Jr. and without Shelton Sampson Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 1.4 points under with Shelton Sampson Jr. and 2.9 points over without Shelton Sampson Jr. over its last 25 games, 13 games against 6. The plain averages are 2.2 and -0.7, a difference of 2.9. Expected was 3.3 points higher with Shelton Sampson Jr. than without Shelton Sampson Jr.. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Shelton Sampson Jr..
Shelton Sampson Jr., receiver: 661 receiving yards, 40 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns in 12 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −4.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Shelton Sampson Jr. vs without Shelton Sampson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +2.9 difference in points of margin with Shelton Sampson Jr. vs without Shelton Sampson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Troy | W | 21 | 7.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 14 | 4.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | -28 | 2.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | -31 | -7.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Rice | L | -2 | 9.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | -42 | -24.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | -3 | -1.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsMarshall | W | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | -10 | -29.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | -12 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Troy | L | -12 | -6.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 9 | -5.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 3 | -8.7 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 4 | -5.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLouisiana Monroe | W | 3 | 13.6 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Delaware (neutral) | L | -7 | 2.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lamar | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ USC | L | -19 | -13.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 7 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 27 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas State | W | 3 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -1 | -7.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsTroy | W | 27 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Southern Miss | L | -4 | 14.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- McNeese, Lamar have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Shelton Sampson Jr. nor without Shelton Sampson Jr.: Shelton Sampson Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.