Louisiana’s points of margin with Darrell Smith and since Darrell Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 0.5 points under with Darrell Smith and 3.7 points over since Darrell Smith’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 9.8 and 7.3, a difference of 2.5. All 4 nonconference games were with Darrell Smith. All 4 first-half games were with Darrell Smith.
Darrell Smith, running back: 156 rushing yards, 30 carries and 2 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games since Darrell Smith’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −4.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Darrell Smith vs since Darrell Smith’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +2.5 difference in points of margin with Darrell Smith vs since Darrell Smith’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lamar | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ USC | L | -19 | -13.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 7 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 27 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 3 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -1 | -7.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 27 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | L | -4 | 14.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lamar has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.