Louisiana’s carries with Darrell Smith and without Darrell Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 2.2 carries over with Darrell Smith and 1.1 carries over without Darrell Smith over its last 25 games, 8 games against 11. The plain averages are 40.2 and 40.2, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 0.5 carries lower with Darrell Smith than without Darrell Smith. Both games after a bye were with Darrell Smith.
Darrell Smith, running back: 163 rushing yards, 33 carries and 2 receptions in 8 of those 25 games, 10% of Louisiana’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Darrell Smith
+2.2
without Darrell Smith
+1.1
-10010
A +1.0 difference in carries over expected with Darrell Smith vs without Darrell Smith is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.2
40.2
304050
A +0.1 difference in carries with Darrell Smith vs without Darrell Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Darrell Smithwithout Darrell Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Troy | W | 31 | 32.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 42 | 37.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 27 | 37.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | 33 | 34.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Rice | L | 31 | 37.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 22 | 35.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 32 | 41.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsMarshall | W | 46 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 28 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 48 | 40.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Troy | L | 42 | 39.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 43 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 50 | 36.9 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 46 | 37.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLouisiana Monroe | W | 37 | 40.2 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Delaware (neutral) | L | 39 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lamar | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ USC | L | 30 | 38.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 51 | 42.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 49 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas State | W | 42 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 34 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsTroy | W | 49 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Southern Miss | L | 40 | 47.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- McNeese, Lamar have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Darrell Smith nor without Darrell Smith: Darrell Smith had no game for the team that season, and sit out.