Louisiana’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 5.2 points under at home and 5.5 points over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 28.8 and 31.5, a difference of 2.8. Expected was 4.8 points higher at home than away. All 3 night games were away.
points a game over expected
at home
−5.2
away
+5.5
-10010
A −10.6 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 15 times in 100.
plain
28.8
31.5
253035
A −2.8 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lamar | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ USC | L | 30 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 21 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 34 | 32.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 23 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 31 | 18.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 33 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | L | 31 | 33.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Lamar has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.