Louisiana Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Blake Baker and without Blake Baker
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 1.4 percentage points over with Blake Baker and 3.6 percentage points under without Blake Baker over its last 25 games, 10 games against 13. The plain averages are 43.1% and 35.9%, a difference of 7.1%. Both neutral-site games were without Blake Baker. Both bowl and playoff games were without Blake Baker.
Blake Baker, quarterback: 2,578 passing yards, 304 pass attempts and 208 completions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Blake Baker
+1.4%
without Blake Baker
−3.6%
-20%0%20%
A +5.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.1%
35.9%
20%40%60%
A +7.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Blake Bakerwithout Blake Baker
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 18.2% | 43.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas | L | 21.1% | 34.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 46.2% | 39.2% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 40.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 23.1% | 36.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 57.9% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | W | 15.4% | 48.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 28.6% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 47.1% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 52.6% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 66.7% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 36.4% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 27.3% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 56.3% | 44.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 61.5% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina (neutral) | W | 25.0% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @LSU | L | 21.4% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 43.8% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArmy | W | 40.0% | 48.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 53.8% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 35.7% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 57.9% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 20.0% | 44.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana, Northwestern State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.