Louisiana Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Blake Baker and without Blake Baker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 0.6 percentage points under with Blake Baker and 0.9 percentage points over without Blake Baker in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 42.1% and 41.9%, a difference of 0.2%. Expected was 2.6 percentage points lower with Blake Baker than without Blake Baker. All 4 conference games were with Blake Baker. All 4 second-half games were with Blake Baker.
Blake Baker, quarterback: 1,327 passing yards, 149 pass attempts and 106 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Blake Baker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −1.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is about what you’d expect.
A +0.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 21.4% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 43.8% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Army | W | 40.0% | 48.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 53.8% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 35.7% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 57.9% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 20.0% | 44.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwestern State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.