Louisiana Tech’s rushing yards with Blake Baker and without Blake Baker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 39.0 yards under with Blake Baker and 76.1 yards over without Blake Baker in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 134.3 and 194.5, a difference of 60.2. All 4 conference games were with Blake Baker. All 4 second-half games were with Blake Baker.
Blake Baker, quarterback: 1,327 passing yards, 149 pass attempts and 106 completions in 7 games this season, 4% of Louisiana Tech’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Blake Baker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −115.1 difference in rushing yards over expected with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is unusual: shuffle which games were with Blake Baker and it comes up 5 times in 100.
A −60.2 difference in rushing yards with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 234 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ LSU | L | -4 | 86.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 143 | 95.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Army | W | 246 | 140.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 148 | 153.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 160 | 199.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 136 | 156.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 132 | 171.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwestern State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.