Louisiana Tech’s points of margin with Trey Kukuk and without Trey Kukuk
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 4.9 points under with Trey Kukuk and 2.8 points over without Trey Kukuk in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are -7.5 and 18.2, a difference of 25.7. All 4 conference games were without Trey Kukuk. All 4 second-half games were without Trey Kukuk.
Trey Kukuk, quarterback: 494 passing yards, 76 pass attempts and 50 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games with Trey Kukuk is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −7.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Trey Kukuk vs without Trey Kukuk is about what you’d expect.
A −25.7 difference in points of margin with Trey Kukuk vs without Trey Kukuk is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 74 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ LSU | L | -31 | -28.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | -17 | -13.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Army | W | 2 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 1 | 7.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 24 | 17.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 26 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 15 | 3.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwestern State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.