Louisiana Tech’s carries with Trey Kukuk and without Trey Kukuk
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 2.6 carries over with Trey Kukuk and 0.4 carries over without Trey Kukuk over its last 25 games, 6 games against 13. The plain averages are 38.7 and 38.8, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 1.7 carries lower with Trey Kukuk than without Trey Kukuk.
Trey Kukuk, quarterback: 1,134 passing yards, 181 pass attempts and 116 completions in 17 of those 25 games, 21% of Louisiana Tech’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Trey Kukuk
+2.6
without Trey Kukuk
+0.4
-1001020
A +2.2 difference in carries over expected with Trey Kukuk vs without Trey Kukuk is about what you’d expect.
plain
38.7
38.8
30405060
A −0.1 difference in carries with Trey Kukuk vs without Trey Kukuk is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Trey Kukukwithout Trey Kukuk
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 47 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas | L | 31 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 40 | 36.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | L | 22 | 27.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 26 | 37.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 63 | 37.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | W | 37 | 43.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 42 | 42.9 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 40 | 41.3 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 37 | 41.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 39 | 43.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 33 | 38.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 30 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 54 | 38.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 48 | 36.2 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina (neutral) | W | 46 | 40.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @LSU | L | 31 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 33 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArmy | W | 31 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 33 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 43 | 39.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 45 | 40.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 35 | 33.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana, Northwestern State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Trey Kukuk nor without Trey Kukuk: Trey Kukuk had no game for the team that season, and sit out.