Louisiana Tech’s carries with Blake Baker and without Blake Baker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 1.5 carries over with Blake Baker and 2.8 carries under without Blake Baker in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.0 and 32.0, a difference of 5.0. All 4 conference games were with Blake Baker. All 4 second-half games were with Blake Baker.
Blake Baker, quarterback: 1,327 passing yards, 149 pass attempts and 106 completions in 7 games this season, 23% of Louisiana Tech’s carries in those games.
2 games without Blake Baker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +4.3 difference in carries over expected with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Blake Baker and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +5.0 difference in carries with Blake Baker vs without Blake Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 31 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 33 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Army | W | 31 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 33 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 43 | 39.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 45 | 40.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 35 | 33.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwestern State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.