Putting Up Numbers· college football

Louisiana Monroe’s total yards with Marcellus Jackson and without Marcellus Jackson

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 14.4 yards under with Marcellus Jackson and 79.0 yards under without Marcellus Jackson over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 343.3 and 243.0, a difference of 100.3. All 4 home games were with Marcellus Jackson. Both night games were with Marcellus Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Marcellus Jackson.

Marcellus Jackson, receiver: 348 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 7 of those 25 games.

One game without Marcellus Jackson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Marcellus Jacksonwithout Marcellus Jackson
Louisiana Monroe’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Marcellus Jackson or without Marcellus Jackson
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 2, 2024@MarshallL388317.9
Nov 9, 2024vsTexas StateL282325.5
Nov 16, 2024@AuburnL242259.6
Nov 23, 2024@Arkansas StateL393393.5
Nov 30, 2024vsLouisianaL335320.0
Aug 28, 2025vsSSt. Francis (PA)W434—
Sep 6, 2025@AlabamaL148234.2
Sep 20, 2025@UTEPW401332.2
Sep 27, 2025vsArkansas StateW385354.2
Oct 4, 2025@NorthwesternL273255.0
Oct 11, 2025@Coastal CarolinaL316388.3
Oct 18, 2025vsTroyL326327.7
Oct 25, 2025@Southern MissL312360.2
Nov 1, 2025vsOld DominionL293283.4
Nov 15, 2025vsSouth AlabamaL154359.6
Nov 22, 2025@Texas StateL300350.8
Nov 29, 2025@LouisianaL516331.8
Sep 5, 2026@Mississippi StateL282260.6
Sep 12, 2026@UABL257263.9
Sep 19, 2026vsSS E LouisianaL495—
Sep 26, 2026vsFlorida AtlanticL332413.1
Oct 3, 2026@South AlabamaL442335.2
Oct 17, 2026vsLouisiana TechL236320.1
Oct 24, 2026@TroyW243322.0
Oct 31, 2026vsSouthern MissL359401.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Marcellus Jackson nor without Marcellus Jackson: Marcellus Jackson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.