Putting Up Numbers· college football

Louisiana Monroe’s total yards with Landon Graves and without Landon Graves

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 48.2 yards under with Landon Graves and 15.9 yards under without Landon Graves over its last 25 games, 1 game against 17. The plain averages are 312.0 and 325.9, a difference of 13.9. Expected was 34.7 yards higher with Landon Graves than without Landon Graves. All 9 home games were without Landon Graves. All 6 night games were without Landon Graves. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Landon Graves.

Landon Graves, quarterback: 185 passing yards, 43 pass attempts and 19 completions in 9 of those 25 games.

One game with Landon Graves is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Landon Graveswithout Landon Graves
Louisiana Monroe’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Landon Graves or without Landon Graves
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 2, 2024@MarshallL388317.9
Nov 9, 2024vsTexas StateL282325.5
Nov 16, 2024@AuburnL242259.6
Nov 23, 2024@Arkansas StateL393393.5
Nov 30, 2024vsLouisianaL335320.0
Aug 28, 2025vsSSt. Francis (PA)W434—
Sep 6, 2025@AlabamaL148234.2
Sep 20, 2025@UTEPW401332.2
Sep 27, 2025vsArkansas StateW385354.2
Oct 4, 2025@NorthwesternL273255.0
Oct 11, 2025@Coastal CarolinaL316388.3
Oct 18, 2025vsTroyL326327.7
Oct 25, 2025@Southern MissL312360.2
Nov 1, 2025vsOld DominionL293283.4
Nov 15, 2025vsSouth AlabamaL154359.6
Nov 22, 2025@Texas StateL300350.8
Nov 29, 2025@LouisianaL516331.8
Sep 5, 2026@Mississippi StateL282260.6
Sep 12, 2026@UABL257263.9
Sep 19, 2026vsSS E LouisianaL495—
Sep 26, 2026vsFlorida AtlanticL332413.1
Oct 3, 2026@South AlabamaL442335.2
Oct 17, 2026vsLouisiana TechL236320.1
Oct 24, 2026@TroyW243322.0
Oct 31, 2026vsSouthern MissL359401.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • St. Francis (PA), S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
  • 5 games in 2024 are neither with Landon Graves nor without Landon Graves: Landon Graves had no game for the team that season, and sit out.