Louisiana Monroe’s total yards with Austin Carlisle and without Austin Carlisle
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 6.9 yards under with Austin Carlisle and 26.4 yards under without Austin Carlisle in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 376.0 and 315.7, a difference of 60.3. Expected was 78.1 yards lower with Austin Carlisle than without Austin Carlisle. Both night games were without Austin Carlisle. All 4 conference games were without Austin Carlisle. All 4 second-half games were without Austin Carlisle.
Austin Carlisle, quarterback: 360 passing yards, 67 pass attempts and 42 completions in 6 games this season.
2 games with Austin Carlisle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
total yards a game over expected
A +60.3 difference in total yards with Austin Carlisle vs without Austin Carlisle is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 282 | 260.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 257 | 263.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 495 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 332 | 413.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 442 | 335.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 236 | 320.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Troy | W | 243 | 322.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | L | 359 | 401.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.