Louisiana Monroe’s third-down conversion rate with Zach Palmer-Smith and without Zach Palmer-Smith
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 5.6 percentage points under with Zach Palmer-Smith and 12.6 percentage points under without Zach Palmer-Smith in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.5% and 33.6%, a difference of 5.1%. All 4 conference games were with Zach Palmer-Smith. All 4 second-half games were with Zach Palmer-Smith.
Zach Palmer-Smith, running back: 156 rushing yards, 34 carries and 4 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Zach Palmer-Smith is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is about what you’d expect.
A −5.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 18.8% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 30.8% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Troy | W | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | L | 43.8% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.