Louisiana Monroe’s third-down conversion rate with Marcellus Jackson and without Marcellus Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 7.9 percentage points under with Marcellus Jackson and 5.7 percentage points under without Marcellus Jackson over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.0% and 26.7%, a difference of 4.3%. All 4 home games were with Marcellus Jackson. Both night games were with Marcellus Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Marcellus Jackson.
Marcellus Jackson, receiver: 348 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Marcellus Jackson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Marcellus Jackson
−7.9%
without Marcellus Jackson
−5.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
31.0%
26.7%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Marcellus Jacksonwithout Marcellus Jackson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 27.3% | 32.4% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 18.2% | 37.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 16.7% | 34.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 36.4% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | 46.7% | 37.5% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 42.9% | 27.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 20.0% | 28.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 46.2% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 30.0% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | 7.7% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 38.5% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 56.3% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 0.0% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 11.1% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 38.5% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 38.5% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 18.8% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 30.8% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 43.8% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Marcellus Jackson nor without Marcellus Jackson: Marcellus Jackson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.