Louisiana Monroe’s third-down conversion rate with Marcellus Jackson and without Marcellus Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 7.9 percentage points under with Marcellus Jackson and 5.7 percentage points under without Marcellus Jackson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.0% and 26.7%, a difference of 4.3%. All 4 home games were with Marcellus Jackson. Both night games were with Marcellus Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Marcellus Jackson.
Marcellus Jackson, receiver: 348 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 7 games this season.
One game without Marcellus Jackson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Marcellus Jackson
−7.9%
without Marcellus Jackson
−5.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
31.0%
26.7%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Marcellus Jacksonwithout Marcellus Jackson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 18.8% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 30.8% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Troy | W | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | L | 43.8% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.