Louisiana Monroe’s third-down conversion rate with Austin Carlisle and without Austin Carlisle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 10.8 percentage points under with Austin Carlisle and 7.1 percentage points under without Austin Carlisle over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 41.1% and 26.9%, a difference of 14.2%. Both night games were without Austin Carlisle. All 4 conference games were without Austin Carlisle.
Austin Carlisle, quarterback: 360 passing yards, 67 pass attempts and 42 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games with Austin Carlisle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +14.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Austin Carlisle vs without Austin Carlisle is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 27.3% | 32.4% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 18.2% | 37.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 16.7% | 34.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 36.4% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | 46.7% | 37.5% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 42.9% | 27.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 20.0% | 28.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 46.2% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 30.0% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | 7.7% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 38.5% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 56.3% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 0.0% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 11.1% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 38.5% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 38.5% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 18.8% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 30.8% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 43.8% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Austin Carlisle nor without Austin Carlisle: Austin Carlisle had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.