Louisiana Monroe’s third-down conversion rate with Aidan Armenta and without Aidan Armenta
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 7.0 percentage points under with Aidan Armenta and 4.9 percentage points over without Aidan Armenta over its last 25 games, 21 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.2% and 46.1%, a difference of 17.9%. All 6 night games were with Aidan Armenta. All 3 games after a bye were with Aidan Armenta.
Aidan Armenta, quarterback: 3,591 passing yards, 538 pass attempts and 316 completions in 23 of those 25 games.
3 games without Aidan Armenta is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −11.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Aidan Armenta vs without Aidan Armenta is about what you’d expect.
A −17.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Aidan Armenta vs without Aidan Armenta is unusual: shuffle which games were with Aidan Armenta and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 27.3% | 32.4% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 18.2% | 37.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 16.7% | 34.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 36.4% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | 46.7% | 37.5% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 42.9% | 27.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 20.0% | 28.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 46.2% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 30.0% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | 7.7% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 38.5% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 56.3% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 0.0% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 11.1% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 38.5% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 38.5% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 18.8% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 30.8% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 43.8% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Francis (PA), S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.