Louisiana Monroe’s points with Landon Graves and without Landon Graves
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 2.3 points over with Landon Graves and 2.8 points under without Landon Graves over its last 25 games, 1 game against 17. The plain averages are 21.0 and 17.9, a difference of 3.1. All 9 home games were without Landon Graves. All 6 night games were without Landon Graves. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Landon Graves.
Landon Graves, quarterback: 185 passing yards, 43 pass attempts and 19 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
One game with Landon Graves is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Landon Graves
+2.3
without Landon Graves
−2.8
-10010
plain
21.0
17.9
0102030
The games
with Landon Graveswithout Landon Graves
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 23 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 17 | 22.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 14 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 21 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 29 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 0 | 6.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 31 | 20.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 28 | 18.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 7 | 7.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | 8 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 14 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 21 | 18.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 6 | 12.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 14 | 24.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 14 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 27 | 19.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 13 | 11.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 20 | 17.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 17 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | 35 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 0 | 18.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 21 | 17.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 21 | 28.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- St. Francis (PA), S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Landon Graves nor without Landon Graves: Landon Graves had no game for the team that season, and sit out.