Louisiana Monroe’s points of margin with Zach Palmer-Smith and without Zach Palmer-Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 4.0 points under with Zach Palmer-Smith and 4.0 points under without Zach Palmer-Smith in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -15.2 and -19.3, a difference of 4.1. Expected was 12.3 points higher with Zach Palmer-Smith than without Zach Palmer-Smith. All 4 conference games were with Zach Palmer-Smith. All 4 second-half games were with Zach Palmer-Smith.
Zach Palmer-Smith, running back: 156 rushing yards, 34 carries and 4 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Zach Palmer-Smith is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +0.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is about what you’d expect.
A +4.1 difference in points of margin with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | -49 | -30.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | -6 | -16.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | -3 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | -28 | -2.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | -17 | -15.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | -24 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Troy | W | 7 | -22.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | L | -14 | 0.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.