Louisiana Monroe’s points of margin with Austin Carlisle and without Austin Carlisle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 10.5 points over with Austin Carlisle and 6.4 points under without Austin Carlisle over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are -4.5 and -20.8, a difference of 16.3. Both night games were without Austin Carlisle. All 4 conference games were without Austin Carlisle.
Austin Carlisle, quarterback: 360 passing yards, 67 pass attempts and 42 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games with Austin Carlisle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Austin Carlisle
+10.5
without Austin Carlisle
−6.4
-20020
plain
-4.5
-20.8
-40-200
A +16.3 difference in points of margin with Austin Carlisle vs without Austin Carlisle is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Austin Carlislewithout Austin Carlisle
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | -5 | -17.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | -21 | -10.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | -34 | -17.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | -7 | -1.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | -14 | -4.9 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 29 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | -73 | -37.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 6 | -8.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 12 | -11.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | -35 | -30.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | -15 | -8.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | -23 | -9.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | -28 | -12.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | -25 | -24.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | -12 | -6.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | -17 | -22.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | -3 | -13.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | -49 | -30.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | -6 | -16.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | -3 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | -28 | -2.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | -17 | -15.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | -24 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 7 | -22.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | -14 | 0.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Austin Carlisle nor without Austin Carlisle: Austin Carlisle had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.