Louisiana Monroe’s carries with Zach Palmer-Smith and without Zach Palmer-Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 1.4 carries under with Zach Palmer-Smith and 8.5 carries over without Zach Palmer-Smith over its last 25 games, 16 games against 2. The plain averages are 34.0 and 39.0, a difference of 5.0. All 12 conference games were with Zach Palmer-Smith. All 3 games after a bye were with Zach Palmer-Smith.
Zach Palmer-Smith, running back: 816 rushing yards, 149 carries and 11 receptions in 17 of those 25 games, 26% of Louisiana Monroe’s carries in those games.
3 games without Zach Palmer-Smith is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −9.9 difference in carries over expected with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Zach Palmer-Smith and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A −5.0 difference in carries with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 45 | 38.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 38 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 34 | 36.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 38 | 36.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | 36 | 35.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 43 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 32 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 41 | 37.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 31 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 30 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | 32 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 29 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 40 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 47 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 24 | 36.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 35 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 43 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 39 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 43 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 25 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | 28 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 44 | 42.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Francis (PA), S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Zach Palmer-Smith nor without Zach Palmer-Smith: Zach Palmer-Smith had no game for the team that season, and sit out.