Louisiana Monroe’s carries with Zach Palmer-Smith and without Zach Palmer-Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 4.4 carries under with Zach Palmer-Smith and 8.5 carries over without Zach Palmer-Smith in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 30.2 and 39.0, a difference of 8.8. All 4 conference games were with Zach Palmer-Smith. All 4 second-half games were with Zach Palmer-Smith.
Zach Palmer-Smith, running back: 156 rushing yards, 34 carries and 4 receptions in 5 games this season, 23% of Louisiana Monroe’s carries in those games.
3 games without Zach Palmer-Smith is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −12.8 difference in carries over expected with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is unusual: shuffle which games were with Zach Palmer-Smith and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A −8.8 difference in carries with Zach Palmer-Smith vs without Zach Palmer-Smith is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Zach Palmer-Smith and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 39 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 43 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 25 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 28 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Troy | W | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | L | 44 | 42.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.