Louisiana Monroe’s carries with Marcellus Jackson and without Marcellus Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 0.4 carries under with Marcellus Jackson and 2.6 carries under without Marcellus Jackson over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.0 and 30.0, a difference of 4.0. All 4 home games were with Marcellus Jackson. Both night games were with Marcellus Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Marcellus Jackson.
Marcellus Jackson, receiver: 348 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 7 of those 25 games, 4% of Louisiana Monroe’s carries in those games.
One game without Marcellus Jackson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Marcellus Jackson
−0.4
without Marcellus Jackson
−2.6
010
plain
34.0
30.0
25303540
The games
with Marcellus Jacksonwithout Marcellus Jackson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 45 | 38.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 38 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 34 | 36.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 38 | 36.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisiana | L | 36 | 35.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 43 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 32 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 41 | 37.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsArkansas State | W | 31 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 30 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | L | 32 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 29 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 40 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 47 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Alabama | L | 24 | 36.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 35 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 43 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 39 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 43 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 25 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Alabama | L | 28 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Troy | W | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 44 | 42.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Marcellus Jackson nor without Marcellus Jackson: Marcellus Jackson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.