Putting Up Numbers· college football

Louisiana Monroe’s carries with Bryson Roland and since Bryson Roland’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 1.2 carries under with Bryson Roland and 2.0 carries over since Bryson Roland’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.0 and 44.0, a difference of 12.0. All 4 away games were with Bryson Roland. Both night games were with Bryson Roland. All 4 nonconference games were with Bryson Roland.

Bryson Roland, running back: 150 rushing yards, 43 carries and 5 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 19% of Louisiana Monroe’s carries in those games.

One game since Bryson Roland’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

carries a game over expected

The games

with Bryson Rolandsince Bryson Roland’s last game
Louisiana Monroe’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Bryson Roland or since Bryson Roland’s last game
SideDateGameResultcarriesExpected
Nov 2, 2024@MarshallL4538.3
Nov 9, 2024vsTexas StateL3836.8
Nov 16, 2024@AuburnL3436.2
Nov 23, 2024@Arkansas StateL3836.5
Nov 30, 2024vsLouisianaL3635.4
Aug 28, 2025vsSSt. Francis (PA)W43—
Sep 6, 2025@AlabamaL3230.1
Sep 20, 2025@UTEPW4137.6
Sep 27, 2025vsArkansas StateW3136.7
Oct 4, 2025@NorthwesternL3031.0
Oct 11, 2025@Coastal CarolinaL3237.0
Oct 18, 2025vsTroyL2937.5
Oct 25, 2025@Southern MissL4036.8
Nov 1, 2025vsOld DominionL4733.2
Nov 15, 2025vsSouth AlabamaL2436.0
Nov 22, 2025@Texas StateL3534.4
Nov 29, 2025@LouisianaL4334.7
Sep 5, 2026@Mississippi StateL3928.4
Sep 12, 2026@UABL4336.7
Sep 19, 2026vsSS E LouisianaL35—
Sep 26, 2026vsFlorida AtlanticL2534.8
Oct 3, 2026@South AlabamaL2831.0
Oct 17, 2026vsLouisiana TechL2432.6
Oct 24, 2026@TroyW3032.6
Oct 31, 2026vsSouthern MissL4442.0

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
  • S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Bryson Roland nor since Bryson Roland’s last game: Bryson Roland had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.