Louisiana Monroe’s carries with Aidan Armenta and without Aidan Armenta
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Monroe was 1.9 carries under with Aidan Armenta and 6.3 carries over without Aidan Armenta in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.7 and 39.0, a difference of 7.3. Both night games were with Aidan Armenta. All 4 conference games were with Aidan Armenta. All 4 second-half games were with Aidan Armenta.
Aidan Armenta, quarterback: 1,300 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 112 completions in 7 games this season, 20% of Louisiana Monroe’s carries in those games.
2 games without Aidan Armenta is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −7.3 difference in carries with Aidan Armenta vs without Aidan Armenta is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 39 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 43 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 25 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 28 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Troy | W | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | L | 44 | 42.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.