Liberty’s third-down conversion rate with Kanye Udoh and without Kanye Udoh
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Liberty was 12.4 percentage points over with Kanye Udoh and 0.6 percentage points under without Kanye Udoh over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 47.6% and 43.6%, a difference of 4.0%.
Kanye Udoh, running back: 70 rushing yards and 12 carries in 4 of those 25 games.
3 games without Kanye Udoh is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Kanye Udoh
+12.4%
without Kanye Udoh
−0.6%
0%20%
A +13.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kanye Udoh vs without Kanye Udoh is about what you’d expect.
plain
47.6%
43.6%
20%40%60%
A +4.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kanye Udoh vs without Kanye Udoh is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kanye Udohwithout Kanye Udoh
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 55.6% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UMass | W | 45.5% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 61.5% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Sam Houston | L | 18.8% | 39.4% | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Buffalo (neutral) | L | 20.0% | 39.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 57.9% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | 38.5% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 21.4% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 30.8% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 16.7% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 30.0% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 60.0% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 44.4% | 40.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 50.0% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 20.0% | 40.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 60.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 43.8% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 16.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 76.9% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 44.4% | 45.8% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @Delaware | W | 37.5% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSam Houston | W | 57.1% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 30.0% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 62.5% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Gardner-Webb has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kanye Udoh nor without Kanye Udoh: Kanye Udoh had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.