Liberty’s third-down conversion rate with Ethan Vasko and without Ethan Vasko
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Liberty was 0.9 percentage points under with Ethan Vasko and 5.1 percentage points over without Ethan Vasko over its last 25 games, 8 games against 10. The plain averages are 40.8% and 43.7%, a difference of 2.9%.
Ethan Vasko, quarterback: 1,967 passing yards, 268 pass attempts and 152 completions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Ethan Vasko
−0.9%
without Ethan Vasko
+5.1%
-20%0%20%
A −6.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ethan Vasko vs without Ethan Vasko is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.8%
43.7%
20%40%60%
A −2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ethan Vasko vs without Ethan Vasko is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Ethan Vaskowithout Ethan Vasko
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 55.6% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UMass | W | 45.5% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 61.5% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Sam Houston | L | 18.8% | 39.4% | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Buffalo (neutral) | L | 20.0% | 39.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 57.9% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | 38.5% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 21.4% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 30.8% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 16.7% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 30.0% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 60.0% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 44.4% | 40.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 50.0% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 20.0% | 40.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 60.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 43.8% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 16.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 76.9% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 44.4% | 45.8% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @Delaware | W | 37.5% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSam Houston | W | 57.1% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 30.0% | 47.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 62.5% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Ethan Vasko nor without Ethan Vasko: Ethan Vasko had no game for the team that season, and sit out.