Liberty’s points of margin with Kanye Udoh and without Kanye Udoh
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Liberty was 8.3 points over with Kanye Udoh and 0.4 points over without Kanye Udoh over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.8 and 17.7, a difference of 4.1.
Kanye Udoh, running back: 70 rushing yards and 12 carries in 4 of those 25 games.
3 games without Kanye Udoh is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kanye Udoh
+8.3
without Kanye Udoh
+0.4
-1001020
A +7.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Kanye Udoh vs without Kanye Udoh is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.8
17.7
020
A +4.1 difference in points of margin with Kanye Udoh vs without Kanye Udoh is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kanye Udohwithout Kanye Udoh
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 20 | 9.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UMass | W | 1 | 5.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 17 | -0.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Sam Houston | L | -2 | -6.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Buffalo (neutral) | L | -19 | 0.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | -10 | -1.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | -10 | 3.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | -18 | -19.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | -14 | -19.5 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 11 | 4.1 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 3 | 9.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 29 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | -4 | 5.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | -7 | -0.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -6 | -8.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | -6 | -1.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @James Madison | L | -7 | 6.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 1 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 36 | 29.9 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 17 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @Delaware | W | 16 | 15.4 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSam Houston | W | 32 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 28 | 13.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 39 | 17.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Gardner-Webb has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kanye Udoh nor without Kanye Udoh: Kanye Udoh had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.