Liberty’s carries with Ethan Vasko and without Ethan Vasko
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Liberty was 0.8 carries under with Ethan Vasko and 3.8 carries over without Ethan Vasko over its last 25 games, 8 games against 10. The plain averages are 40.0 and 42.1, a difference of 2.1. Expected was 2.6 carries higher with Ethan Vasko than without Ethan Vasko.
Ethan Vasko, quarterback: 1,967 passing yards, 268 pass attempts and 152 completions in 16 of those 25 games, 17% of Liberty’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Ethan Vasko
−0.8
without Ethan Vasko
+3.8
-10010
A −4.5 difference in carries over expected with Ethan Vasko vs without Ethan Vasko is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.0
42.1
304050
A −2.1 difference in carries with Ethan Vasko vs without Ethan Vasko is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Ethan Vaskowithout Ethan Vasko
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 48 | 41.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UMass | W | 47 | 37.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 63 | 42.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Sam Houston | L | 36 | 40.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Buffalo (neutral) | L | 35 | 39.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 37 | 42.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | 38 | 39.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 42 | 34.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 41 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 47 | 43.6 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 30 | 44.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 40 | 39.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 43 | 38.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 41 | 40.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 44 | 37.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 57 | 40.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 37 | 37.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 39 | 39.5 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 44 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @Delaware | W | 47 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSam Houston | W | 39 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 40 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 33 | 36.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Ethan Vasko nor without Ethan Vasko: Ethan Vasko had no game for the team that season, and sit out.