Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate with Jovantae Barnes and without Jovantae Barnes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 4.3 percentage points under with Jovantae Barnes and 1.0 percentage points over without Jovantae Barnes in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.3% and 35.4%, a difference of 2.1%. Expected was 5.2 percentage points higher with Jovantae Barnes than without Jovantae Barnes. All 3 night games were with Jovantae Barnes. All 3 games while ranked were with Jovantae Barnes. All 4 second-half games were with Jovantae Barnes.
Jovantae Barnes, running back: 224 rushing yards, 43 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jovantae Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jovantae Barnes vs without Jovantae Barnes is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 7.1% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 33.3% | 32.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 25.0% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 28.6% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 35.7% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 41.7% | 29.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 61.5% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.