Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate with CJ Baxter and without CJ Baxter
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 6.2 percentage points under with CJ Baxter and 12.4 percentage points over without CJ Baxter over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.7% and 41.7%, a difference of 9.0%. All 5 home games were with CJ Baxter. All 5 day games were with CJ Baxter. All 3 ranked opponents were with CJ Baxter.
CJ Baxter, running back: 487 rushing yards, 88 carries and 8 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without CJ Baxter is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with CJ Baxter
−6.2%
without CJ Baxter
+12.4%
-20%0%20%
plain
32.7%
41.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with CJ Baxterwithout CJ Baxter
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Auburn | L | 33.3% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 28.6% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vsMMurray State | W | 36.4% | — | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 16.7% | 33.4% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisville | L | 0.0% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 53.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 31.3% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 45.5% | 49.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 38.5% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 27.3% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsTexas | L | 38.9% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 41.7% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 46.2% | 34.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 66.7% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTTennessee Tech | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 40.0% | 43.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisville | L | 15.4% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 7.1% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 33.3% | 32.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 25.0% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Carolina | W | 28.6% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 35.7% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 41.7% | 29.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 61.5% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with CJ Baxter nor without CJ Baxter: CJ Baxter had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.