Kentucky’s rushing yards with Jovantae Barnes and without Jovantae Barnes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 5.3 yards over with Jovantae Barnes and 2.7 yards under without Jovantae Barnes in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 162.8 and 182.5, a difference of 19.7. All 3 night games were with Jovantae Barnes. All 3 games while ranked were with Jovantae Barnes. All 4 second-half games were with Jovantae Barnes.
Jovantae Barnes, running back: 224 rushing yards, 43 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season, 23% of Kentucky’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Jovantae Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −19.7 difference in rushing yards with Jovantae Barnes vs without Jovantae Barnes is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 208 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 63 | 145.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 157 | 159.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 390 | 177.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 122 | 151.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 155 | 117.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 74 | 154.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 173 | 199.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.