Kentucky’s points with Jovantae Barnes and without Jovantae Barnes
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 0.6 points over with Jovantae Barnes and 8.4 points over without Jovantae Barnes in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.2 and 38.0, a difference of 6.8. Expected was 7.9 points higher with Jovantae Barnes than without Jovantae Barnes. All 3 night games were with Jovantae Barnes. All 3 games while ranked were with Jovantae Barnes. All 4 second-half games were with Jovantae Barnes.
Jovantae Barnes, running back: 224 rushing yards, 43 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jovantae Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −6.8 difference in points with Jovantae Barnes vs without Jovantae Barnes is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 17 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 31 | 22.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 45 | 45.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 35 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 35 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 21 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 34 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.