Kentucky’s points of margin with Jovantae Barnes and without Jovantae Barnes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 1.2 points under with Jovantae Barnes and 14.4 points over without Jovantae Barnes over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 3.8 and 21.0, a difference of 17.2. All 3 night games were with Jovantae Barnes. All 3 games while ranked were with Jovantae Barnes.
Jovantae Barnes, running back: 224 rushing yards, 43 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Jovantae Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jovantae Barnes
−1.2
without Jovantae Barnes
+14.4
-200
plain
3.8
21.0
-20020
A −17.2 difference in points of margin with Jovantae Barnes vs without Jovantae Barnes is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jovantae Barneswithout Jovantae Barnes
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Auburn | L | -14 | 4.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | -10 | -16.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vsMMurray State | W | 42 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas | L | -17 | -21.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisville | L | -27 | -2.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 8 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | -7 | -13.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 25 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | -22 | -3.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | -21 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsTexas | L | -3 | -9.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | -22 | -1.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 7 | -11.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 31 | -5.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTTennessee Tech | W | 32 | — | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | -28 | -15.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisville | L | -41 | -3.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | -28 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 10 | -4.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 24 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Carolina | W | 1 | -6.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 1 | -12.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 8 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 17 | 21.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jovantae Barnes nor without Jovantae Barnes: Jovantae Barnes had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.