Kentucky’s passing yards vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Through Kentucky’s game on Oct 3, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 61.5 yards over vs a top-10 opponent and 46.8 yards under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 4 games against 12. The plain averages are 224.5 and 190.1, a difference of 34.4. Expected was 48.5 yards lower vs a top-10 opponent than vs an unranked opponent. All 10 home games were vs an unranked opponent. All 8 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent. All 3 games after a bye were vs an unranked opponent.
Kentucky’s +108.3 vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 30 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 3, 2026.
passing yards a game over expected
A +108.3 difference in passing yards over expected vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up once in 100.
A +34.4 difference in passing yards vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | W | 243 | 178.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 158 | 214.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Florida | L | 165 | 175.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Auburn | L | 154 | 194.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 192 | 163.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vsMMurray State | W | 313 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 211 | 140.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisville | L | 173 | 212.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 85 | 223.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 187 | 194.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 240 | 217.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 124 | 202.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 225 | 182.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsTexas | L | 258 | 200.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 330 | 199.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 161 | 210.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsFlorida | W | 168 | 201.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTTennessee Tech | W | 261 | — | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 284 | 227.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisville | L | 100 | 192.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 301 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 146 | 242.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 252 | 168.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 177 | 280.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Carolina | W | 272 | 211.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2024, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, Tennessee Tech, Youngstown State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 3.