Kentucky’s pass attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Through Kentucky’s game on Nov 29, 2025.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 4.5 pass attempts over vs a ranked opponent and 4.2 pass attempts under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 9 games against 14. The plain averages are 33.9 and 25.0, a difference of 8.9. All 9 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Kentucky’s +8.7 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 3rd of the 73 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Nov 29, 2025.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +8.7 difference in pass attempts over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
A +8.9 difference in pass attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | vs Clemson (neutral) | L | 28 | 30.9 | |
| Aug 31, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 18 | 24.1 | |
| Sep 7, 2024 | vs South Carolina | L | 17 | 27.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | vs Georgia | L | 27 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vs Ohio | W | 27 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | W | 28 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 26 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Florida | L | 32 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Auburn | L | 27 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 27 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vsMMurray State | W | 33 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 25 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisville | L | 24 | 28.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 23 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 33 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 21 | 29.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @South Carolina | L | 19 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Georgia | L | 41 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsTexas | L | 39 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 36 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 29 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsFlorida | W | 23 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTTennessee Tech | W | 27 | — | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 49 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisville | L | 26 | 31.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2023, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2023, 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, Tennessee Tech have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.