Kentucky’s carries with CJ Baxter and without CJ Baxter
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kentucky was 1.6 carries over with CJ Baxter and 10.9 carries under without CJ Baxter over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.3 and 25.0, a difference of 10.3. All 5 home games were with CJ Baxter. All 5 day games were with CJ Baxter. All 3 ranked opponents were with CJ Baxter.
CJ Baxter, running back: 487 rushing yards, 88 carries and 8 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 36% of Kentucky’s carries in those games.
One game without CJ Baxter is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with CJ Baxter
+1.6
without CJ Baxter
−10.9
-10-505
plain
35.3
25.0
25303540
The games
with CJ Baxterwithout CJ Baxter
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Auburn | L | 27 | 38.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 36 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vsMMurray State | W | 43 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 30 | 34.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Louisville | L | 33 | 35.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 42 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 37 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 45 | 38.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 41 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 22 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsTexas | L | 46 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 36 | 39.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 31 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 43 | 35.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTTennessee Tech | W | 39 | — | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 19 | 32.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Louisville | L | 26 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 32 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | W | 34 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 42 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @South Carolina | W | 37 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 32 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 25 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 39 | 38.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with CJ Baxter nor without CJ Baxter: CJ Baxter had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.