Kent State’s third-down conversion rate with Mason King and since Mason King’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kent State was 5.5 percentage points under with Mason King and 0.0 percentage points over since Mason King’s last game over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.0% and 34.1%, a difference of 1.8%. Both night games were since Mason King’s last game.
Mason King, running back: 202 rushing yards, 52 carries and 6 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games since Mason King’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Mason King vs since Mason King’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Mason King vs since Mason King’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | vs Ohio | L | 26.7% | 29.4% | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 26.7% | 30.8% | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Akron | L | 9.1% | 30.8% | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | 9.1% | 29.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsMMerrimack | W | 35.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 14.3% | 24.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsBuffalo | L | 40.0% | 30.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 21.4% | 30.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 15.4% | 23.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 25.0% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 23.1% | 28.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 33.3% | 31.8% | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | 23.1% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @Akron | W | 33.3% | 31.1% | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 30.8% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 33.3% | 37.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 35.7% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Wofford | W | 57.9% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsBall State | W | 42.9% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsOhio | L | 31.3% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | 23.1% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 35.3% | 34.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 36.4% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @SSacramento State | L | 30.8% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Wofford, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Mason King nor since Mason King’s last game: Mason King had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.