Kent State’s third-down conversion rate with Mason King and since Mason King’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kent State was 5.5 percentage points under with Mason King and 0.2 percentage points over since Mason King’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.0% and 34.1%, a difference of 1.8%. Both night games were since Mason King’s last game. All 4 first-half games were with Mason King.
Mason King, running back: 202 rushing yards, 52 carries and 6 receptions in 6 games this season.
3 games since Mason King’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Mason King vs since Mason King’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Mason King vs since Mason King’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 35.7% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Wofford | W | 57.9% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 42.9% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio | L | 31.3% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | 23.1% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 35.3% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @SSacramento State | L | 30.8% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Wofford, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.