Kennesaw State’s third-down conversion rate with Zion Booker and since Zion Booker’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kennesaw State was 3.9 percentage points over with Zion Booker and 7.6 percentage points under since Zion Booker’s last game over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 41.1% and 32.0%, a difference of 9.1%. All 4 conference games were since Zion Booker’s last game. All 4 nonconference games were with Zion Booker.
Zion Booker, receiver: 146 receiving yards and 20 receptions in 3 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Zion Booker
+3.9%
since Zion Booker’s last game
−7.6%
-10%0%10%
A +11.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Zion Booker vs since Zion Booker’s last game is about what you’d expect.
plain
41.1%
32.0%
20%30%40%50%
A +9.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Zion Booker vs since Zion Booker’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Zion Bookersince Zion Booker’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Sam Houston | L | 23.1% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Florida International | W | 40.0% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 47.4% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 15.4% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMerrimack | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | W | 53.8% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 12.5% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | W | 64.3% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @Florida International | W | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 20.0% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | W | 47.1% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 46.7% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 35.7% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 53.8% | 43.2% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Jacksonville State | W | 42.9% | 38.7% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Western Michigan (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 38.1% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Georgia State | L | 22.2% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 29.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 53.8% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vsJacksonville State | L | 45.5% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @Missouri State | L | 27.3% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | 35.3% | 33.4% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 20.0% | 39.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Zion Booker nor since Zion Booker’s last game: Zion Booker had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.