Kennesaw State’s third-down conversion rate with Zion Booker and since Zion Booker’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kennesaw State was 3.9 percentage points over with Zion Booker and 7.6 percentage points under since Zion Booker’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 41.1% and 32.0%, a difference of 9.1%. All 4 conference games were since Zion Booker’s last game. All 4 nonconference games were with Zion Booker. All 4 first-half games were with Zion Booker.
Zion Booker, receiver: 146 receiving yards and 20 receptions in 3 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +11.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Zion Booker vs since Zion Booker’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +9.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Zion Booker vs since Zion Booker’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Georgia State | L | 22.2% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 29.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 53.8% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 45.5% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | 27.3% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs Liberty | L | 35.3% | 33.4% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 20.0% | 39.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.