Kennesaw State’s third-down conversion rate with Latrelle Murrell and since Latrelle Murrell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kennesaw State was 0.0 percentage points over with Latrelle Murrell and 19.0 percentage points under since Latrelle Murrell’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.9% and 20.0%, a difference of 18.9%. All 4 home games were with Latrelle Murrell. All 4 nonconference games were with Latrelle Murrell.
Latrelle Murrell, running back: 169 rushing yards, 29 carries and 5 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Latrelle Murrell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Latrelle Murrell
+0.0%
since Latrelle Murrell’s last game
−19.0%
-10%0%10%
plain
38.9%
20.0%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Latrelle Murrellsince Latrelle Murrell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Sam Houston | L | 23.1% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Florida International | W | 40.0% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 25.0% | 35.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 47.4% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 15.4% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMerrimack | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | W | 53.8% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 12.5% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | W | 64.3% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @Florida International | W | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 20.0% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | W | 47.1% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 46.7% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 35.7% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 53.8% | 43.2% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Jacksonville State | W | 42.9% | 38.7% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Western Michigan (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 38.1% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Georgia State | L | 22.2% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 29.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 53.8% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vsJacksonville State | L | 45.5% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @Missouri State | L | 27.3% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | 35.3% | 33.4% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 20.0% | 39.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Latrelle Murrell nor since Latrelle Murrell’s last game: Latrelle Murrell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.