Kennesaw State’s third-down conversion rate with Latrelle Murrell and since Latrelle Murrell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kennesaw State was 0.0 percentage points over with Latrelle Murrell and 19.0 percentage points under since Latrelle Murrell’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.9% and 20.0%, a difference of 18.9%. All 4 home games were with Latrelle Murrell. All 4 nonconference games were with Latrelle Murrell. All 4 first-half games were with Latrelle Murrell.
Latrelle Murrell, running back: 169 rushing yards, 29 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Latrelle Murrell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Latrelle Murrell
+0.0%
since Latrelle Murrell’s last game
−19.0%
-10%0%10%
plain
38.9%
20.0%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Latrelle Murrellsince Latrelle Murrell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Georgia State | L | 22.2% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 29.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 53.8% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 45.5% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | 27.3% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs Liberty | L | 35.3% | 33.4% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 20.0% | 39.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.