Kennesaw State’s points of margin with Davis Bryson and since Davis Bryson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kennesaw State was 0.3 points under with Davis Bryson and 0.7 points under since Davis Bryson’s last game over its last 25 games, 3 games against 20. The plain averages are -12.7 and -0.1, a difference of 12.6. All 15 night games were since Davis Bryson’s last game. Both ranked opponents were since Davis Bryson’s last game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were since Davis Bryson’s last game.
Davis Bryson, quarterback: 410 passing yards, 80 pass attempts and 43 completions in 20 of those 25 games.
3 games with Davis Bryson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +0.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Davis Bryson vs since Davis Bryson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −12.6 difference in points of margin with Davis Bryson vs since Davis Bryson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Sam Houston | L | -6 | -14.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Florida International | W | 1 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -33 | -10.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | -1 | -15.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | -47 | -44.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMerrimack | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | W | 7 | 8.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 8 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | W | 28 | -2.2 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @Florida International | W | 19 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 13 | 15.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | W | 3 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | -9 | 3.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 7 | 9.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 6 | 1.4 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Jacksonville State | W | 4 | 1.7 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Western Michigan (neutral) | L | -35 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Georgia State | L | -14 | 2.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | -33 | -31.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | -3 | -7.2 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vsJacksonville State | L | -1 | -3.7 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @Missouri State | L | -3 | 5.2 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | -28 | -13.9 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 16 | -4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Merrimack, West Georgia have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.