Putting Up Numbers· college football

Kennesaw State’s carries with Latrelle Murrell and since Latrelle Murrell’s last game

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kennesaw State was 2.2 carries under with Latrelle Murrell and 4.8 carries under since Latrelle Murrell’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.4 and 26.0, a difference of 5.4. All 4 home games were with Latrelle Murrell. All 4 nonconference games were with Latrelle Murrell.

Latrelle Murrell, running back: 169 rushing yards, 29 carries and 5 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 13% of Kennesaw State’s carries in those games.

One game since Latrelle Murrell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

carries a game over expected

The games

with Latrelle Murrellsince Latrelle Murrell’s last game
Kennesaw State’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Latrelle Murrell or since Latrelle Murrell’s last game
SideDateGameResultcarriesExpected
Nov 16, 2024vsSam HoustonL3336.2
Nov 23, 2024vsFlorida InternationalW3638.4
Nov 30, 2024@Louisiana TechL3035.8
Aug 29, 2025@Wake ForestL4336.5
Sep 6, 2025@IndianaL3228.5
Sep 13, 2025vsMMerrimackW32—
Sep 20, 2025vsArkansas StateW4638.6
Sep 27, 2025vsMiddle TennesseeW2939.0
Oct 9, 2025vsLouisiana TechW2738.0
Oct 21, 2025@Florida InternationalW4037.9
Oct 28, 2025vsUTEPW3942.7
Nov 8, 2025@New Mexico StateW4338.9
Nov 15, 2025@Jacksonville StateL4638.6
Nov 22, 2025vsMissouri StateW4436.2
Nov 29, 2025@LibertyW4338.1
Dec 5, 2025@Jacksonville StateW3540.0
Dec 19, 2025vsWestern Michigan (neutral)L3436.5
Sep 3, 2026vsWWest GeorgiaW47—
Sep 12, 2026vsGeorgia StateL2133.1
Sep 19, 2026@TennesseeL3026.1
Sep 26, 2026@Arkansas StateL3830.0
Oct 7, 2026vsJacksonville StateL3034.7
Oct 14, 2026@Missouri StateL2733.2
Oct 22, 2026vsLibertyL2729.1
Oct 28, 2026@Middle TennesseeW2630.8

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
  • West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Latrelle Murrell nor since Latrelle Murrell’s last game: Latrelle Murrell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.