Kansas State’s third-down conversion rate with Garrett Oakley and without Garrett Oakley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas State was 2.7 percentage points over with Garrett Oakley and 4.1 percentage points under without Garrett Oakley over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 44.0% and 35.6%, a difference of 8.3%. Both neutral-site games were with Garrett Oakley. All 5 ranked opponents were with Garrett Oakley. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Garrett Oakley.
Garrett Oakley, tight end: 756 receiving yards and 69 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +6.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Garrett Oakley vs without Garrett Oakley is about what you’d expect.
A +8.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Garrett Oakley vs without Garrett Oakley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Garrett Oakley and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Houston | L | 35.7% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 53.8% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Cincinnati | W | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Iowa State | L | 23.1% | 37.9% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Rutgers (neutral) | W | 56.3% | 40.8% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsIowa State (neutral) | L | 38.5% | 38.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Army | L | 22.2% | 44.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 23.1% | 36.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 42.9% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 53.3% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 43.8% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 30.0% | 40.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | 46.7% | 31.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 26.7% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Utah | L | 33.3% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 36.4% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 62.5% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 62.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Cincinnati | L | 58.8% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsHouston | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arizona State | L | 26.7% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Colorado | L | 43.8% | 39.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Dakota, Nicholls have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.