Kansas State’s third-down conversion rate with Garrett Oakley and without Garrett Oakley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas State was 10.8 percentage points over with Garrett Oakley and 5.3 percentage points under without Garrett Oakley in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 59.3% and 36.4%, a difference of 22.8%. Both night games were with Garrett Oakley. All 3 nonconference games were with Garrett Oakley. All 4 first-half games were with Garrett Oakley.
Garrett Oakley, tight end: 221 receiving yards and 19 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Garrett Oakley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +16.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Garrett Oakley vs without Garrett Oakley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Garrett Oakley and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A +22.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Garrett Oakley vs without Garrett Oakley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 62.5% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 62.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 58.8% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 26.7% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Colorado | L | 43.8% | 39.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.