Kansas State’s third-down conversion rate with Avery Johnson and since Avery Johnson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas State was 11.0 percentage points over with Avery Johnson and 5.8 percentage points under since Avery Johnson’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 59.7% and 35.2%, a difference of 24.4%. All 5 home games were with Avery Johnson. Both night games were with Avery Johnson. All 3 nonconference games were with Avery Johnson.
Avery Johnson, quarterback: 1,301 passing yards, 187 pass attempts and 118 completions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Avery Johnson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +16.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Avery Johnson vs since Avery Johnson’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Avery Johnson and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +24.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Avery Johnson vs since Avery Johnson’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Avery Johnson and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 62.5% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 62.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 58.8% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 26.7% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Colorado | L | 43.8% | 39.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.